Funded by the Gates Foundation
COSA · Ethos Agriculture · Progreso
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Case study · Climate intelligence in the supply chain

When the forecast is right once, behavior changes for good.

A Gates Foundation-funded pilot, run with COSA and implementation partner Ethos Agriculture, across coffee cooperatives in Rwanda and Uganda.

Coffee farming in Rwanda and Uganda used to run on generational knowledge: rain in July and August, sun in October. Then the pattern broke, and a smallholder with roughly 40 harvests in a lifetime could no longer afford to bet on signals that no longer hold. COSA deployed the Helios AI climate intelligence module, and Ethos Agriculture turned the signal into a coffee calendar timing planting, drying, transport and export week by week.

The turning point was not a sales pitch. It was a single dry spell that arrived exactly as forecast. From there the question stopped being "should we trust this?" and became "what does it say this week?" Co-ops now pass the signal on to the farmers they serve.

Inside the case study
  • Why a crop-specific climate signal is different from a general weather forecast
  • The moment trust flipped, and why one accurate call was enough
  • Where co-ops focused: planting and harvest windows, pricing, and plain-language questions
  • A repeatable model for pilots with NGOs, funders and sourcing teams

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