Yield and Production

See next season's supply, and the two after it.

Multi-year production, area, and yield forecasts for every commodity you source, 1 to 3 years out. Not just where supply stands today, but where it is heading, so you see the shift before the market does.

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1 to 3 yr

production and yield forecasts, refreshed weekly

70+

candidate models per crop, only winners deploy

10 yr

of history for every major producer

The Edge

Production = Yield × Area.
Always know which one moved.

Helios AI forecasts all three, 1 to 3 years out, as one consistent set. So when an origin's output is set to fall, you can tell instantly whether farmers will plant less or the land will produce less.
That difference changes what you do about it.

Total Output

metric tons

Efficiency

tons / hectare

Land Use

hectares

Same output drop, less land

Farmers planted fewer hectares. Often a market or policy signal, and it can reverse next season.

Planting decision

Same output drop, worse yields

The land underperformed. A climate or agronomic problem that can persist and spread.

Planting decision

Capabilities

What the forecasts deliver.

Know how much to trust every number

Every forecast ships with a confidence range and a historical-accuracy score. Narrow means a stable, well-modeled origin.

Anticipate shortages and surpluses

Multi-year forecasts show which origins are expanding, shrinking, or at risk, before it reaches price.

See the whole market balance

Stocks, imports, production, exports, and consumption broken down, so you spot a tightening market before it bites.

Compare producers at a glance

Top-10 producer tables with a decade of data and market share show where supply sits and where it is moving.

Under the Hood

Refreshed weekly, validated on years the model never saw.

1 to 3 yr

forecasts on production, area, and yield

10 yr

of history per commodity and producer

Top 10

producers with a decade of market share

Weekly

full pipeline rerun, data to forecast

However you work

Yield & Production across the Helios AI platform.

Dashboard

The Supply tab: graphs, top-producer tables, supply and demand balances, and variability distributions, from global down to region.

Reports

The yield and supply module of every commodity brief: production outlook and balances for your own origins.

Integrations

Top producers, production, area, and yield history and outlooks as typed JSON and agent-callable tools.

The Method

What goes into a forecast.

Many sources, one truth

Blended from FAO, USDA, EUROSTAT, NASS, national data, and satellite, with rules to resolve conflicts.

Climate built in, phase by phase

Roughly 30 climate features per region-year, because stress at flowering is not stress at harvest.

A model tournament per crop

70+ candidates trained and tested on hidden years. Only models that genuinely learned the patterns deploy.

Consistent by construction

Production = Yield × Area always holds, so the three forecasts never contradict each other.

FAO

USDA / FAS

EUROSTAT

NASS

National stats

Satellite

Frequently Asked Questions

Want the outlook on your own origins? Talk to us.

How far out do forecasts go?

1 to 3 years, with 10 years of history for every commodity and major producer, and the whole pipeline refreshed weekly.

How do I know which forecasts to trust?

Every projection ships with a confidence range and a historical-accuracy score. A narrow range means a stable, well-modeled origin. A wide range means volatility or sparse data.

What is the difference between yield, production, and area?

Production is total output, area is how much land is harvested, and yield is output per hectare. We forecast all three, so you can see whether supply is shifting from a planting decision or a productivity problem.

Where does the data come from?

Blended from FAO, USDA/FAS, EUROSTAT, NASS, national government sources, and daily satellite and weather observations, with priority rules to resolve conflicts.

How is it validated?

Each crop is modeled by 70+ candidates tested on hidden historical years. Only models that genuinely learned the patterns deploy, and their historical accuracy is shown in-product.