We put our own money behind our own forecast.
Helios AI called US corn yield below USDA trend, backed the view with its own capital, and marked it to market for +4.9% on capital at risk, scorecard and misses included.
Most agricultural forecasters are never marked to market. Helios AI chose to be. On 13 July 2026, with the USDA still carrying US corn at a trend yield of 183 bu/ac and no weather loss priced, Helios AI published a desk note arguing the number was too high, then put its own capital behind the view in December corn calls. On 12 August the USDA moved that way, cutting yield to 180.7 and trimming ending stocks, and the position was sold into the report-day spike for +4.9% on capital at risk in 26 days, 1.7 times the move in flat price.
The call was right on direction, timing and structure, and too big on magnitude: Helios AI forecast a cut of 8 to 10 bu/ac and the USDA took 2.3. This page shows both, because a firm that only shows you its winners is not telling you how it decides. The point is not the trade. It is a dated, falsifiable process, backed with real capital and published in full.
- Why USDA trend yield was too high going into pollination, and how Helios AI priced it
- Every claim graded against the USDA and observed weather, including the ones that missed
- Where the +4.9% actually came from, with the option premium broken down leg by leg
- The full trade in three dates: one instrument, one entry, one exit, no revisions
- Why defined-risk structure turned a partly-right thesis into the whole gain
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