South American crop outlook 2026/27: what procurement should watch

The swing that remains in world grain supply sits in Brazil and Argentina, and it does not sit where most readers look. Rio Grande do Sul will very likely have a large year; that is a basis story inside Brazil. Mato Grosso's soybeans and the second corn crop that follows them are the world story, and their outcome is decided by planting dates in October and February and by rain in November to January and April. Those are dates, and they are on the watchlist on the last page.

The US crop sets the floor under world supply, and the floor is still being measured. USDA cut its corn yield in September on the first field counts of the season, then raised it in October to 181.2 bu/ac, above every analyst estimate. The increase came entirely from implied ear weight, which would be the second-highest on record, while ear counts fell and the August crop tour's ear measurements pointed to a yield near 172. October's survey also rested on an unusually small share of harvested fields, so the 10 November report carries more new information than a typical November.