Hunger Exposure Index

Forecasters put the odds at about 99% that El Niño conditions arrive by December 2026, peaking between September and November. There is a 63% chance it exceeds +2.0°C, which would make it a strong event. NOAA, the WMO and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology all agree.

That means a higher risk of drought across Southern Africa, the Sahel during its main rains, and the South Asian monsoon. Not everywhere loses: El Niño usually brings more rain to the Eastern Horn in October–December, so Somalia, Kenya and south-east Ethiopia may get a better season.

The last strong El Niño, in 2023–24, shows what this can cost. Zimbabwe's maize harvest fell by half, some Southern African cereal harvests dropped by two-thirds, and Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe all declared national disasters.

Oil hit $118 a barrel in late March 2026 and stayed above $90 through May before falling back to about $74. The high prices have already worked through the first half of the year as higher shipping and farm input costs. The fall is recent and could reverse — the Strait of Hormuz is still a live risk.

Fertilizer is the bigger problem. It is made from natural gas and much of it ships through the Gulf. 14 of the 15 priority countries buy more fertilizer than they produce, and Sudan brings in roughly 54% of its supply through the Strait of Hormuz — more than any other country here.

Two countries are less exposed. Nigeria exports more urea than it imports, and Pakistan makes all its own urea — though it still buys DAP and almost all of its potash abroad.

This is what separates a bad harvest from a famine. A country that has foreign currency can buy food on the world market to cover the shortfall. A country that does not, cannot. The clearest measure is import cover — how many months of imports a country's reserves can pay for.

The spread is wide. South Sudan has about nine days of import cover; Malawi, Yemen, Sudan and Zimbabwe have roughly a month or less; Somalia's reserves are close to nothing and Afghanistan's are frozen. At the other end, Nigeria has about 11 months, Niger 7.8, and Kenya and Madagascar about 6.2 — enough to absorb a shock.

A weak currency is not always a warning sign. Ethiopia's birr is 215% and Nigeria's naira 134% weaker than their long-run averages, but both governments deliberately let their currencies float as part of IMF-backed reforms — a one-off correction, not a collapse. In Sudan and Malawi the fall is market-driven, and there it is a genuine sign of distress.